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跨境合资航企模式在东南亚市场未来发展几何?

时间:2018-06-04 18:25来源: 遨游深度:

跨境合资模式在东南亚的运作情况一向良好。但是,很难想像这个市场能支撑合资航企数量的井喷式增长。

  跨境合资模式在东南亚的运作情况一向良好。但是,很难想像这个市场能支撑合资航企数量的井喷式增长。

  东南亚是跨境合资航企模式的一个先锋地区。亚洲航空集团和捷星航空是第一批吃螃蟹的航企,于十余年前就在东南亚多个市场成立了多家合资低成本航企。

  过去五年里,狮航、酷航、越捷航空和亚洲航空X也加入了这股潮流。目前东南亚地区已有11家跨境合资航企,业务覆盖了六个国家。跨境合资模式使得一些有高远志向的航空集团绕过了民航所有权的监管,在整个东盟实现了快速的扩张。而东盟市场活力十足,中产阶层人口正在不断扩大。

  如今东南亚已有多家合资航企在运营业务。同时东盟还推出了开放天空政策,无论东南亚哪个国家的航企都能够在该地区内开通国际航线。因此,便出现了是否还需要成立更多的合资航企的质疑声。然而,亚洲航空、狮航和越捷航空仍在设法扩大自己在东盟的投资组合。与此同时,捷星航空等另外一些航企也在寻觅机会。

  东南亚跨境合资航企在六个国家共运营有230架飞机

  目前以东南亚为大本营的跨境合资航企共有11家。除一家(马来西亚马印航空)外,其他均属于低成本航企。这些合资航企的大本营分布于该地区内六个国家,运营的飞机数量已超过230架,占东南亚民航飞机总量的12%。

东南亚跨境合资航企(按启动日期排序)

来源:CAPA-航空中心与CAPA机队数据库

注:*2014年,菲律宾虎航被售与宿雾太平洋航空,同时曼达拉虎航停止运营。

捷星太平洋航空前身为太平洋航空,后采用了低成本模式,于2008年更名为捷星太平洋航空后重新启动业务。

印尼亚洲航空前身为AWAIR航空,后采用了低成本模式,于2005年更名为印尼亚洲航空后重新启动业务。

东盟七大主要国家中,仅缅甸没有跨境合资航企。缅甸是东盟按人口和GDP分别排名第五和第七的国家。

东盟各国按GDP和人口的排名

来源:CAPA-航空中心与世界银行

  几年来,亚洲航空一直希望在缅甸和越南成立合资航企,目的是让自己在东盟所有国家都有投资。越捷航空自2013年便在评估缅甸市场。狮航则从2016年起就一直考虑在越南成立合资航企。

  亚洲航空集团和狮航集团渴望扩大在东盟的投资组合

  狮航创始人Rusdi Kirana在2018年4月10日与波音签署50架737 MAX 10订购协议时表示,集团的一项目标是今年获得在东南亚又一个国家成立航企的审批。他并未明确是哪个国家,也未说明新航企将采取低成本模式还是全服务模式。

  狮航集团最初的计划是,利用全服务品牌巴泽航空(Batik)在越南运营业务。集团旗下在马来西亚的全服务航企马印航空也曾计划利用巴泽航空这个品牌。而集团在泰国的分公司泰国狮航则使用了狮航的品牌名,属于低成本模式。马印航空和泰国狮航都于2013年启动,是狮航集团首批在海外成立的航企。

  亚洲航空集团首席执行官Tony Fernandes于2018年3月接受多家媒体采访时表示,集团正与缅甸一家航企洽谈相关事宜,但要公布启动合资航企的时间表还为时过早。Fernandes表示预计集团一年前在越南与当地一家航企成立的合资航企将于2018年年底启动业务。

  东南亚六个国家可支撑跨境合资航企业务

  亚洲航空集团在2001年于最早的本土市场马来西亚起家,于2004年在泰国启动了旗下第一家合资航企。印尼亚洲航空和菲律宾亚洲航空分别于2005年和2012年启动业务。缅甸和越南的国内市场则是东盟国家中唯一两个亚洲航空集团尚未开疆拓土的大型民航市场。

  在东盟另外四个国家中,文莱和新加坡都没有国内市场。柬埔寨和老挝的国内市场规模则极小。这四个国家也都不需要在当地设立下属航企来运营国际航班。亚洲航空集团已在利用旗下现有航企运营往来于这些国家的航班。根据东盟开放天空政策规定,亚洲航空集团可在其未设有下属航企的两个东盟国家之间开通国际航线。不过,东盟开放天空政策并未授予境内运输权(第八航权),也就是他国航企不能运营任何国内航班。因此,要进入东盟各国的国内市场,就必须在当地成立合资航企。

  亚洲航空集团在越南的第三次尝试进展缓慢

  就在一年前的2017年3月31日,亚洲航空集团第三次尝试在越南成立下属航企。集团在最初发表声明时表示,目标是在2018年年初成立一家全新的航企,由越南Gumin航空持股70%。

  Fernandes在2018年3月19日接受采访时表示,这家新航企打算于2018年10月启动业务。然而,这个目标似乎太过激进,因为目前为止越南政府审批的速度相当缓慢。项目第一年几乎没有任何进展。目前也没有任何迹象表明,越南当局愿意向任何新成立航企颁发航空营运许可证。

  越南政府自2010年后就未颁发过任何新的航空营运许可证。越星航空在当年获得了许可证。越南最早于2008年开放了自己的民航市场,向三家私营航企颁发了许可证。这三家分别是湄公航空、越南中南航空和越捷航空。

  大概在同一时期,太平洋航空更名为捷星太平洋航空,并采纳了低成本模式。退后一年,也就是2007年,澳大利亚的澳洲航空收购了太平洋航空27%的股份,是私营企业(包括越南本土企业和海外企业)对越南航企首次进行投资。

  越南中南航空于2008年末启动业务。之后湄公航空和越捷航空分别于2010年和2011年末开通了航班。越捷航空快速扩张,目前在国内市场的规模可与越南航空媲美。越星航空目前仍处于航班开通前阶段。这家航企几年来一直在设法获得航空营运许可证,不过目前已敲定于今年稍后开通航线。

  越南国内市场或已无法再容下另一家初创航企

  越南亚洲航空若顺利启动业务,则必须面对越星航空、越捷航空、捷星太平洋航空和越南航空的竞争(若狮航集团也在越南成功启动合资航企,或许还要应付越南巴泽航空)。而越南国内市场自2012年以来规模增长了近两倍,目前已近饱和。

  越南国内乘客量增长率从2016年的25%下滑至2017年的13%。预计2018年国内乘客量增长还将进一步放缓,下滑至10%左右。并且不大可能回归2013年至2016年间20%至30%的年增长率。再成立一家初创航企的空间是有限的,尤其是在胡志明机场已极为拥挤的情况下。胡志明机场每天大多数时段均无多余的起降时刻。所有初创航企都可选择点对点国内航线。但此类航线收益率极低,且大多数至少都已有一家低成本航企在运营航班。

  亚洲航空集团的风险在于进场太晚。若前两次尝试成功,则集团在越南会有迥然不同的境遇,能够先发制人。集团最初于2007年与越南企业Vina成立了一家合资航企,但不久项目便终止。2010年年初,亚洲航空集团宣布将收购越捷航空30%的股份。当时后者已获得了营业执照。然而,2011年10月这项交易也宣告流产,原因是越捷航空未能获得越南政府允许其使用亚洲航空品牌名的审批。越捷航空在越南本土的所有人则继续前进,于2011年12月自行启动了这家航企。

  缅甸或未准备好迎接低成本航企的到来

  亚洲航空集团将在缅甸成立当地唯一一家低成本航企。然而,难的是这个市场尚未准备好支撑低成本模式。

  目前,缅甸仅三座机场可容纳A320,其国内市场主要使用的是涡轮螺旋桨客机。尽管亚洲也有一些低成本航企在近年购置了此类机型,但亚洲航空集团却坚持完全由A320系列执飞航班。为可能在缅甸成立的合资航企添置另一种机型,意味着这家全新的航企将无法受益于亚航其他合资航企可享受到的某些协作优势。

  此外,涡轮螺旋桨客机航班也无法让亚洲航空与缅甸国内的竞争对手之间体现出差异。目前缅甸有七家航企在运营ATR 72,并且都属于全经济舱配置,座椅也完全一样。低成本航企将无法极大地提升飞机利用率,因为缅甸国内大多数机场都没有灯光。并且低成本航企在这里也无法极大地降低成本,因为大多数供应商都享有垄断地位,向国内所有航企都收取相同的费用。

  缅甸国内市场规模不大

  针对缅甸公民的票价已相对较低,因此刺激需求的空间有限。针对外国乘客的票价则相对较高,但由于政府征税较高而无法大幅下调。缅甸国内市场乘客量规模还不到300万。而2017年马来西亚和菲律宾国内乘客量分别有2500万,越南则有3200万。随着缅甸经济的发展和中层阶级人口的不断增长,国内能够负担航班费用人口的比例也在上升。缅甸有5000多万人口,多于马来西亚,是菲律宾和越南人口的约一半左右。然而,缅甸国内市场已有九家航企相互竞争。而马来西亚、菲律宾和越南则基本只有三家航企在参与国内市场的竞争。低票价会刺激需求出现一定的增长,但除非监管政策和机场环境有所突破,否则在这里运营航班是不具备存活力的。

  金缅甸航空已在缅甸试验过低成本模式。这家初创航企从2013年启动以来就一直采用纯低成本模式。其于2015年转型为全服务模式,因为无法实现比本土竞争对手更低的成本。此航企向一家海外低成本航企寻求投资时也以失败告终。

  东南亚市场已显拥挤,竞争极为激烈

  越捷航空的目标是建设一个泛亚洲的航空集团。其曾考虑过收购金缅甸航空的股份,最后却选择在泰国成立了自己的首家合资航企。这家合资航企于2015年末开始运营航班。泰国市场规模远大于缅甸,但越捷航空在当地只是排名第四的低成本航企,且到目前为止一直未能实现较大的业务规模。

  尽管东南亚市场仍在蓬勃发展,但其中大多数国家的航企数量都已达到了不可持续的地步。有时会出现非理性竞争,因为战略扩张和市场份额的地位通常高于盈利能力。过去几年里,东南亚民航业的盈利水平一直远低于全球平均值。

  东南亚有六个国家的规模足以支撑低成本航企的业务,但都无法支撑两三家以上的航企同时参与竞争。与此同时,另外四个国家(文莱、柬埔寨、老挝和缅甸)又很难在本土支撑低成本航企运营业务。

  投资者在东南亚成立任何新的低成本航企时,都应警惕所涉及的风险。就连亚洲航空集团在地区内最新成立的合资航企也陷入了财务困境。菲律宾亚洲航空启动后前五年累积亏损超过了1亿美元,到2017年才首次勉强盈利。狮航集团在海外的两家合资航企自2013年启动业务以来就未曾盈利。虎航于印尼和菲律宾的两家合资航企经历了两年的严重亏损后,不得不在2014年停业售出。

  东南亚更需要的是航企合并,而不是成立更多新的航企。过去14年里,跨境合资模式在该地区的运作情况一向良好。但是,很难想像这个市场能支撑(假设会出现的)合资航企数量的井喷式增长。

百度一下:跨境合资航企模式在东南亚市场未来发展几何?pk彩票邀请码

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